A recent study revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to modernize its coal-fired power plants may come with a hefty price tag of up to $46.4 billion over the next two decades. This cost estimate surpasses the initial projection from leaked internal SaskPower documents, which had estimated $26 billion over 25 years.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina’s economics department, conducted an analysis to determine the expenses associated with Saskatchewan’s strategy to transition from coal-fired power plants to nuclear power and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). His research indicated that this approach would be more costly and environmentally damaging compared to retiring the coal plants and implementing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, which was the province’s previous plan before the policy reversal in early 2025.
Dolter emphasized the potential benefits of an alternative scenario that could lead to cost savings, emission reductions, and an average annual savings of over $800 per individual. His analysis drew from leaked SaskPower documents, data submitted to the province’s rate review panel, and some assumptions due to the lack of transparency in the government’s internal analysis.
Further analysis incorporating carbon pricing indicated that without such measures, the expenditure for maintaining coal operations could reach $30.2 billion in the next two decades. When factoring in carbon pricing, the total cost could escalate to $46.4 billion, based on Ottawa’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta earlier this year.
The financial implications of the current trajectory chosen by Saskatchewan are evident, although Dolter refrained from speculating on the government’s rationale for the decision. CBC News sought a response from the provincial government regarding Dolter’s findings, but the government’s statement reiterated its commitment to ensuring reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s growth, emphasizing a diversified energy strategy that includes nuclear power.
Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan highlighted the potential impact of moving away from coal-fired plants on the city’s population, expressing relief at the government’s decision to refurbish the coal facilities, which has brought about a sense of optimism and development prospects for the city.
The article also touched on the legal and financial risks associated with Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal clean electricity regulations and the potential implications of legal challenges. Dolter underscored the possibility of significant financial losses if the province invests in refurbishing coal plants only to face mandatory shutdowns due to legal disputes.