Nigel Farage is poised to potentially become the Prime Minister, according to recent polling data. A detailed analysis conducted by YouGov, surveying 13,000 individuals, indicates that Farage’s Reform UK party could secure 311 seats in the House of Commons if an election were held today. While this outcome would fall just shy of a majority, it would effectively block any other party from taking the lead in governing the country.
Currently holding five parliamentary seats, Reform UK’s projected success contrasts starkly with the anticipated performance of other major political parties. The polling suggests that Labour would secure a mere 144 seats out of the total 650, a significant decline from the 411 seats won in the previous year. The Liberal Democrats would hold 78 seats, while the Conservative Party would face near-total decimation.
The forecast indicates that Kemi Badenoch’s party would only secure 45 seats, with the SNP projected to gain 37 seats and the Greens expected to win seven. This would mark Labour’s poorest performance in the Commons since 1931, surpassing even their disappointing outcome in the 2019 general election under Jeremy Corbyn, where they secured 202 seats.
Notable casualties on the Labour side would include prominent figures such as Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, and Angela Rayner. The Conservatives, according to the poll, would see a loss of 60% of their frontbench, with individuals like Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, and Sir Mel Stride identified as potential casualties.
This projected outcome would represent the worst electoral defeat in the Tories’ history. The timing is particularly significant as it coincides with Keir Starmer’s upcoming appearance at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool. Starmer, who has faced a series of setbacks, will need to present a compelling vision to rejuvenate party support, amidst criticism from figures such as Andy Burnham.
In a recent interview with The Telegraph, Burnham raised concerns about a “climate of fear” within Starmer’s team, emphasizing the necessity for significant change to reverse the current trajectory. Speculation has emerged that Burnham, a former Cabinet member, may be considering a return to Parliament to challenge Starmer for the position of Prime Minister.