The current Atlantic hurricane season has seen only six named storms so far, with most being short-lived. The decreased hurricane activity is largely attributed to the strong El Niño event this year, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.
El Niño, a significant component of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, involves changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric winds. The ongoing “super” El Niño has suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
An El Niño event occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above average, while a La Niña event is indicated by temperatures 0.5 degrees Celsius below average. The impacts of these oscillations are global in nature.
Current forecasts suggest a potentially historic El Niño event, with models predicting anomalies exceeding the previous record set in the winter of 1982-1983. The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA expects anomalies of 2.6 to 2.7 degrees Celsius, making this a very strong event.
Despite the quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic, experts had anticipated this trend. NOAA’s initial forecast projected eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes, which was later adjusted to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes in August.
The Pacific’s influence on the Atlantic can be seen through the creation of vertical wind shear due to higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. This wind shear disrupts the structure of hurricanes, limiting their formation.
While the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to remain subdued, there is still a possibility of hurricane formation, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the Caribbean region is experiencing high wind shear, reducing the likelihood of storm formation there.
In contrast to the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean has experienced heightened hurricane activity, with 16 named storms recorded so far. Tropical Storm Fay nearly reached hurricane strength over the weekend, forming farther north than typical Atlantic hurricanes.
While El Niño has suppressed Atlantic hurricanes, there have been some short-lived tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico impacting coastal communities. The current El Niño is forecasted to peak in late 2026 and extend into 2027, with its implications on the following year’s hurricane season remaining uncertain.