Australian scientists have developed a pioneering online tool named the Carbon Impacts Tracer to assess the climate effects of fossil fuel projects. The tool, which was showcased using a Canadian offshore oil venture as an example, can predict the impact of proposed mines, offshore oil platforms, and energy developments on global warming, glacier melting, and human fatalities.
According to Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, the Carbon Impacts Tracer links the emissions from individual fossil fuel projects to their contribution to planetary warming and subsequent impacts. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals, the tool calculates the projected increase in global temperatures and utilizes scientific literature to estimate real-world consequences such as coral reef degradation, reduced food production, and job losses.
The online platform was recently launched featuring analyses of five Australian projects, one in the U.K., and the Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada. The Bay du Nord project, led by Equinor, a Norwegian energy company, is anticipated to extract over 430 million barrels of oil reserves. The tool indicates that the project could result in 188 megatonnes of CO2 emissions over two decades, leading to a minute temperature rise globally.
Additionally, the Carbon Impacts Tracer suggests that the emissions from Bay du Nord could subject over 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related fatalities in Europe alone. The tool also projects glacier loss of 4.6 square kilometers, causing a sea level rise of 0.025 millimeters, and predicts around 2,100 job losses and 9,800 people being pushed into poverty due to pollution from the project.
While Equinor did not provide immediate comments on the findings, Joel Finnis, a climatologist from Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador, highlighted the significance of the tool in consolidating diverse studies for public understanding. Maria Nawaz, from the University of New South Wales, emphasized that the tracer could be pivotal in holding governments and corporations accountable for emissions by directly linking fossil fuel projects to tangible environmental and human impacts.
Nawaz suggested that the tool could aid insurers in assessing project risks and economists in forecasting economic repercussions. The Carbon Impacts Tracer currently focuses on prospective developments and intends to include more projects as data becomes accessible.