After Andy Burnham expressed his intention to compete in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a difficult position with limited options. Allowing Burnham to run carried the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge and removing a barrier to such a move, as only Members of Parliament are eligible to vie for leadership positions.
Moreover, the prospect of facing an unforeseen mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester amid challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May added to the dilemma. Poor election results during this period could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with Burnham and other contenders eyeing the top leadership role.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister opted for, involved blocking Burnham by citing the financial burden on taxpayers of organizing a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move may have neutralized the immediate risk, it could have severe long-term repercussions.
Following the announcement, numerous Members of Parliament vehemently criticized Labour’s governing body, accusing it of orchestrating a stitch-up. Burnham could potentially emerge as a rallying figure for disgruntled backbenchers who perceive the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has shown a propensity for rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple policy reversals. Provoking further dissent within the party will undoubtedly complicate Starmer’s leadership.
Privately, a government minister suggested that allowing Burnham to run would have been a bolder move, implying that blocking him might portray Starmer as weak. Additionally, there have been aggressive briefings against Wes Streeting, viewed as a potential leadership contender, indicating a complex political landscape.
While the PM’s supporters argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal conflicts that the public is fatigued by, the reality may be different. Until Starmer can improve Labour’s declining poll ratings, speculations about his future are likely to persist.
Despite criticisms and accusations of prioritizing personal ambitions over constituents, Burnham remains a popular figure, earning the moniker “King of the North” for his actions during the pandemic.
Although Labour comfortably secured Gorton in 2024, the party now faces a challenge in retaining it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, while the Greens aim to attract left-leaning voters. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of his exclusion on the election outcome, highlighting the stakes at hand.
If Labour were to lose the upcoming by-election, significant repercussions are anticipated.